by digimark » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:58 pm
Re: Cap & Trade, Energy Tax, etc.
I agree that we don't want to get too deep into the politics; it's a scary neck 'o the woods. But these things are demonstrably true:
1. There's only so much oil; the Lord isn't making any more of it. And the most easy-to-obtain bulk of it is under the control of countries we've got problems with.
2. Oil burning cars, trains and airplanes have been wonderful and have taken us far in a relatively short time, but we're only now approaching some of the downsides that haven't been obvious before -- we're polluting the atmosphere and approaching a tipping point where the effects will be terrible and tough if not impossible to reverse.
3. It's not realistic to expect Americans to be able to give up oil-based transportation without having reasonably effective replacements. Solar, hydrogen, plug-in electric, battery, gas-electric hybrids and biodiesel are all parts of the solution but each has problems that have to be overcome. So we'll be using oil for a long time to come.
4. The only proven way to induce Americans to cut back on oil consumption is to raise the price. And the price will ultimately continue to rise because of global politics, the easy deposits will begin to run dry and it will get more costly to extract what's left from under deep sea or in shale and coal tars. We've already seen this; when the price skyrocketed last year, we all cut back. And there is no question -- as prices go higher, they will be painful, particularly to the people who can least afford it, low-income people.
5. We haven't been paying the true cost of our oil use because we've never factored in the cost of the pollution and the havoc it's wreaking on the atmosphere. A 2 degree increase in global average temperature doesn't sound like much, but it's enough to melt the Arctic ice cap in summer, shrink the Greenland and Antarctica ice masses, melt the Himalayan mountaintops and European glaciers, all of which will raise the global average water level at least 1-2 feet. Again -- doesn't sound like much, but it's enough to inundate Lower Manhattan and destroy the NYC Subway, triple the Category 4 and 5-level hurricanes each year, and put New Orleans and much of the Louisiana Bayou underwater *permanently*. 2 degrees of warming is enough to dry Lake Mead, kill Las Vegas and Phoenix for lack of water, make DC feel like Jacksonville, Boston as hot as DC, and Maine and Nova Scotia great places to grow what used to grow in North Carolina. And the kicker is that the effects appear to be worse than expected -- the latest studies indicate that, without changes, we're looking at a 5 to 7 degree global increase within 90 years. As an average it doesn't act the same in all places -- some places will actually get cooler, while many more will get warmer, and quite warmer. How does 145 degrees in Phoenix in the summer sound? (Basically, deadly to healthy people, not just seniors, frail and children.)
6. Cap & trade and direct energy taxation are proposed ways to make the users of energy pay the true costs of their use. If it costs more, you'll use less, make efforts to develop alternatives more economical, and provide a ready source of money to subsidize the people hurting the most while funding real solutions to the problem. If there is another way that will work as well, then I'm sure we'll do it. Cap & trade allows efficient users to make money off of their efficiency by selling their extra credits to industries who have difficulties becoming more efficient. So the inefficient industries end up costing more (passing the cost on to their customers). A direct energy tax is more honest, and encourages more widespread conservation, but may not be politically possible for now.
7. People can legitimately disagree on some of the details and proposals, but because oil prices fluctuate much faster than we will see any results from legislation, we are destined to suffer through more boom/bust wild price swings, and it will begin to effect how people get along, how countries get along, etc.
All of this is a major pain-in-the-*** and threatening to us simple folk who just want to go camping and pimp our trailers in the process. But reality intrudes no matter how we try to avoid it. We just need our politicians to create a solution and get on with it.
