Early forecasts show Wilma aiming for US Gulf Coast

[TomS]

Here's the latest predicted strom track from NOAA



Wouldn't you know it. I made camping reservations in Southwestern Florida for the second week in November.

[TonyCooper]

You may be OK... take a peek at the models, most show a run right up the Fla Keys skirting Homestead / Miami area. Of course two show a more northerly route... and they may all be wrong, and most certainly will be refined as the storm moves ever closer...

One thing for sure, it ain't going away.

[IraRat]

Everyone in Florida is an amateur meteorologist, and if you look at all of the computer models they offer up, the people's track record is about as good as the experts.

Which is why so many people ignore a lot of the expert advice.

As far as which types cause the most damage, there are a bunch of factors. How fast it's moving through, whether you're hit with the top front or bottom back side of the eye, whether you're hit with BOTH, the building codes, flooding due to topography, etc.

See? I told you we're all experts here!

And that yellow line above is headed right for my house.

[cracker39]

After chatting with Ira on AOL, I took stock on my supplies and went out to WM and got a couple of 16oz propane bottles for my camp stove and batteries for the portable boom box. I have a nearly full 20 lb propane tank and a new adapter from HF that refills the 16oz bottles from the big tank, so I only needed a couple of the small ones. When they are empty, I'll just refill them to see if the adapter really works. I guess we're ready for whatever comes (knocking on wood!!!).

[mikeschn]

Hey Wilma is headed for my favorite winter hangout... Naples... Does that mean I need to stock up on Propane, Water and Food? Oh never mind, I'll stay up here. But you guys down there, better stock up... and if you need ideas, check out my bugout page for the weekender...

http://www.mikenchell.com/weekender/bugout.html

Mike...

[cracker39]

Everyone in Florida is an amateur meteorologist, and if you look at all of the computer models they offer up, the people's track record is about as good as the experts.

As I said before, Ira, Where it will be going depends on which channel you are watching. I'll just wait til I feel the winds, then I'll know if it is in the area. And, the one that tore up Naples, Bartow and Lake Wales so badly last year, hit at about a 45 degree angle to the coast, not 90 degrees. The incoming angle means little IMHO...it is the wind force and forward speed that matters (See, Ira is right...we're all experts here!!! or think we are anyway). One came through fast and didn't do as much damage as another that had lower wind speed, but slower movement. That one stayed in the area longer, doing more damage than the more powerful one did.

[TonyCooper]

And that yellow line above is headed right for my house.

Lets hope it takes a track south of the green line!

[cracker39]

Right now, Accuweather.com has the center projected to hit Ft. Myers and cross about 40-60 miles to our south. But, it's too early yet to predict it's path, experts or no experts. Remember last year when the Tampa residents left and moved inland? Then the hurricane changed course and came right up the center and hit us and Orlando where most of the evacuees who were trying to evade it were staying. You just never know.

[asianflava]

It looks like the same track as Charley. The bad thing is that the "dirty" side of the storm will hit. Even if the eye doesn't cross you, FL will get a lot of bad weather. The NE side is where tornados usually are.

[TomS]

My reservation is for Collier Seminole S.P., just south of Naples. This is our long-awaited maiden voyage. Nothing to do but, wait and see.

[cracker39]

Tom, this 'cane will be long gone before November gets here. The weather should be great for a camping trip in Naples. This past weekend brought the first really nice weather. We had a nice cool breeze all weekend and enjoyed being outside.

[Woody]

Woody, two things:

With this coming from the west, is this a very big deal for us, since it's going over land first?

Also, what the hell is up with all of these python stories? I've been in Florida 12 years and this is the first I've heard of them.

First, It all depends if it is on a stregthening cycle or weakening one and where it makes landfall in relation to us. They are saying landfall no further north than Punta Gorda, Florida. Which means we will see it in some form , maybe? To early to tell. The teardrops are ready however to go at a moments notice if need be. We'll see what happens as it gets closer


Second, A bunch of a$$holes who are supposive to be devoted snake lovers and reptile lovers buy these exotic snakes and other reptiles for pets, when they get big or too big to handle they think they are doing the humane thing by releasing them in the wild. Or they escape from captivity and are not found until they turn up in the wild or the news. This is why in all sunbelt states it is illegal to have and sell Red belly Amazon Piranhas. Could you only imagine what would happen then, Most people haven't a ffin' clue how introduction of a non-native speices disrupts the indigenous populations of native speices and then there rapid decline because of it. Now the State is considering a bounty on them for removal. I could only imagine if the find an Anaconda out there, it wouldn't surprise me with all the other non- native speices I have personally seen in the Everglades from Mellaluca trees from Austrilia to exotic pets that are of enormous size out there also. I have seen Asian Water Moniters about 4-5 feet long out there Air boating. The snake thing is or seems to be a problem that started some time ago from the size of some of them they have seen. Makes you wonder how big some of these snakes really are out there and how many if there is a established breeding population of mature exotic snakes and other exotic reptiles out in the vast area of the everglades. If the snake (Burmese Python) was 13 plus feet long and had eaten a six foot alligator, God only knows if a child is safe once they move in to populated areas where people live at the edge of the Everglades. Remember the monster Boa Constrictor that made the late night TV circuit some years back, they found it under a house somewhere down here. I think we have only seen the tip of this slithering iceberg, I do hope I am wrong, time will tell

Maybe I will get some Snake Skin curtains for my teardrop cheap

[TomS]

Tom, this 'cane will be long gone before November gets here. The weather should be great for a camping trip in Naples. This past weekend brought the first really nice weather. We had a nice cool breeze all weekend and enjoyed being outside.

We spent a few days in the Ft. Myers area last year on the first week in December. We drove a car down to FL for my snowbird parents. The weather was great and we really enjoyed it. That's one of the reasons were going back.

Wendy, wanted to collect seashells. So we spent a day on Sanibel Island and Captiva islands. The devastation from Charley on Captiva was unbelievable. The place looked like a war zone. We also saw a lot of damage around Charlotte. I'm just concerned that this thing will destroy the campground. We'll see where Wilma goes. If necessary, we'll change plans.

[asianflava]

The Reticulated python actually gets longer than the Burmese but the Burmese is fatter. A friend had one, I couldn't believe how big it got in just a couple years. Mice were just snacks, he had to feed it rabbits. He ended up selling it back to the store because it just got too big.

Florida is full of non-native species. The Jesus lizard is one of them. I read that they are displacing the anole. I hadn't seen an anole in years, they used to be all over the place. You can find other types of South American Chiclids in the canals and ditches of South Florida.

[Woody]

Not to mention the two egged kind of non native speices that arrive in record pace ever day here also

Anyway back to the hurricane, the dirty side of this one will be the SE quadrant due to the direction of travel (from the SW)and counter clockwise rotation of these storms. You have to add the foward movement of the storm to that side. Example; sustained winds of 100 mph and gust of 115 mph on that side with a foward movement of 10 mph. Then it will be 110 mph sustained and gusts 125 mph on that side and convesrely the NW quadrant side will be reduced by 10 mph to 90 mph sustained and 105 gusts. The tornado factor is present anywhere in the storm but are usually within the eyewall due to the violent turbalance in that area primarily of the storm. Just my experience of 18 plus years dealing with them I guess. Hope this helps. I hope it is a wet and windy Cat 1-2 anything more than that I will have to consider where it make land fall wether to leave or stay. The teardrops are ready to go at a moments notice anyway for travel or shelter after the fact like last time. Time will tell what happens