Ivar the Red wrote:caseydog wrote:Joseph wrote:I guarandamntee you that if we decide to drill for our own oil, the effect would not take twenty years or ten or even five. It would be immediate. The price is up because supply is constant and demand is going up. The prospect of future increased supply would drive the price down. That's how commodity speculation works, whether it's oil, gold, soybeans or pork bellies. That's why they call them "futures" - they're speculating on a future price.
Joseph
The market is currently bidding on oil for Audgust/September delivery.
Unless you know how to drill for oil really fast, I don't think opening up new fields is going to lower prices anytime soon. I'm not opposed to some additional drilling in the US, including offshore and in ANWR. But, let's not fool ourselves. If we don't change our consumption practices, we are not going to significantly lessen our dependence on foreign oil. Drilling alone is not going to do the job.
That's where compromise comes in. The left wants conservation measurers, and the right wants to drill, drill, drill. Through negotiation and compromise, you draft legislation that does some of both.
CD
Don't you think if OPEC thinks we
soon will be useing our
own oil that they won't lower the prices to try and make us stop drilling?
Well, yes, but why? There isn't enough oil here to end our dependence.
They actually did keep prices artificially low for about a decade, to keep consumption high, and dependence high. That's part of the reason the price increase hurts so much now. If it would have happened on a more even and gradual pace, we would have adapted better.
Low crude prices also made it economically unattractive for oil companies to drill for new oil domestically, too. Do you remember seeing all those oil derricks around Oklahoma sitting idle when oil was $25 per barrel? Now that oil is over 100 bucks, those pumps are being restarted all over the place.
And, keep in mind this important fact. Unless oil prices are high, there is no incentive for oil companies to drill here. If it is more profitable to buy from OPEC suppliers than it is to explore for it here, then why spend the money, if your mission as a company is to make higher and higher profits every quarter.
Deep water exploration needs reliably high oil prices to be considered viable by oil companies. Other fossil fuel exploration like oil shale and tar sands extraction requires even higher oil prices -- with little or no risk of OPEC cutting prices -- to be considered safe ventures for the oil industry.
It's a catch-22. Now that prices are high, we need new sources of domestic oil, but, in order for new domestic exploration to be profitable enough to pursue, we need high oil prices.
CD