mikeschn wrote:It does seem that way, doesn't it? But why are commodities like oil higher?
Mike...
caseydog wrote:The inflation we are seeing now seems to be more due to energy prices than excess currency.
First of all, oil was kept at an artificially low price for many years by OPEC to keep demand growing. It is kind of like pricing cocaine low at first, to get customers addicted, IMO. There were geo-political reasons, too, but the price of oil at 25-bucks a barrel was lower than the market would bear for a long time.
NOw, OPEC is going with the flow. Our consumption is up, China and India are emerging as major Oil consumers, and Oil supplies in many parts of the world have peaked. It's a seller's market, and the counties that have oil, can charge a lot for it. That is not likely to change.
The Oil futures market is a bunch of speculators playing a game, IMO. But, they make there money off the small raises and dips in prices that they create with their buying and selling. It looks like "money for nothing" to me, but I don't reckon they care what I think.
The speculators have some effect on price, but the underlying reason Oli prices are going up is because Oil consumption is going up, and Oil is a finite resource -- simple supply and demand.
In the long run, I can't see Oil price doing anything but go up. In the short run, I worry about something going seriously off the rails in the Middle East -- such as the small, but not impossible chance Bush will bomb Iran before he goes away next year. Something like that could trigger a sharp spike in Oil prices, and really mess up the economy. Of course, there is no shortage of potential catastrophes in the Middle East.